Dropped the Chain

With all the movement on Bitcoin recently, I was surprised why one of my friends had mentioned anything about it. He bought a bit of BTC and ETH back in 2021 when Bitcoin was around 50 on the way up, saw the high and then watched it slide ever since. Near weekly he would mention something about how he was down, or it was climbing back up a bit, or he should have sold, or bought more at the low (but never did). So, not mentioning it now at the first time in profit in two and a half years, is weird.

So, I asked him about it.

He hadn't bought much, but kept it all on Coinbase anyway, rather than in a private wallet, something I warned him about and said multiple times that I can help him move it. However, with all the changes in requirements, he had to do some KYC, otherwise they would "restrict" his account. He tried, but they kept rejecting the identifications he was using, so instead of asking me about it, 2 minutes before the deadline, he sold everything he had. That was when Bitcoin was at 40K

Two and a half years of holding, and he made a loss.

After he said this, I just remained quiet, as I know he is feeling pretty shitty about it and I also know that he knows that he could have easily (and should have) talked to me about it first. It is a pity, because after all of this time, even if it wasn't going to be much, I would have liked to have heard him talk excitedly about being up - now he is just going to be bitter.

Even if it wasn't much.

That feeling of loss is going to be there, and we tend to remember it well. Pain is a great teacher, and this is going to be a painful reminder for my friend, and will probably stop him from ever buying again, because if the next year meets expectations, he didn't just make a loss on his initial purchase, he has also lost the potential for gain in the future too. When Bitcoin hits 100K, he is going to remember. And he will be reminded again, and again.

After that high, how long until it will reach a loss again for him at 50?

While some of my other friends are there excitedly watching whatever crap they have bought in the past go up, and their technical wealth increase rapidly, he is going to have to sit there and feel crap, just because he didn't ask. This will be the third time too, because I tried to get him to buy some Bitcoin back when it was 900, then again when it was at 4000 in March 2020. All that pain.

And still hasn't learnt.

In some things, perhaps we never learn, no matter how many times we have been taught the lesson. maybe it is like me and math, where things just don't click for me once it gets too complex or abstract, because I just can't put all the pieces together. Crypto is a mix of economics, technology and faith. Some understand the value propositions of the technology, some get the theories around the economics - but how many have the faith also?

I am disappointed for my friend, because for him, the amount that he put in wasn't that significant in the grand scheme of his life, but the lessons he could have learned other than pain, would have likely changed his understanding in many aspects of his life, improving multiple areas. At least for me, after many losses and many unrealized gains, I have found so many hidden values through crypto that have affected other parts of my life, and shifted my perspectives.

Mostly for the better.

We are still in for some ups and downs and for those who haven't invested yet, there are plenty of opportunities to come, and more opportunities for those who have, but at some point, there is a certain inevitability about the mid-term future - but in the longrun,

No one knows.

Worth the attempt?
Worth the hold?
Worth the lesson?
Worth the pain?

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]