US COVID update (14-04-2020)

Well, perhaps a very few states didn't get full reports yesterday, MI, PA, CT, GA, VA, TN, and NC up, but only by 350, 250, 821, 475, 280, 75, and 90. Only the CT really seems big compared to the others. The average for the others is still down from Saturday.

Overall US new cases down by 3800, a drop of 15% or so. That's big. The drop from the largest increase (a week ago) is basically 30%. I'd say the peak probably really was last Friday or so.

The increase in new deaths was 10%. The decrease from last week's high is also near 30%. While lagging new cases some, the drop from 2000+ new deaths to 1400 new deaths is pretty dramatic.

The NY/NJ/MA/CT/RI/DE big hotspot dropped new cases by nearly 4000, even counting CT's surge. If you average CT's Sunday/Monday reports, then the drop was more like 4500. That's huge. The NYC area must generally be really pas its peak. New hospitalizations are increasing a bit, but otherwise all the trends are down on average.

MI new cases were up 350, probably the Easter Sunday reporting possible glitch I guess. The overall trend for the week is down down but not sharply, probably an average of 100 fewer new cases per day. New deaths have not gone negative for increases but the rate is definitely slowing. It is, as always, lagging the new cases numbers.

IL had 30 more new deaths than yesterday, but except for MI no other state increased by 20. 14 of the 25 states with most total cases saw increases in new deaths, but except for MI and IL (Detroit and Chicago basically) the increases were quite small.

New case increased in 12 of the top 25 cases but except for the states mentioned at the top, the increases were small.

I would, at this point, I would be very surprised at anything but more declines. But that is partly dependent on when travel and gathering and such restrictions are eased and how much. It's probably not a good idea yet to have entertainment venues of any kind (stadiums, theaters, etc) open any time soon. But shopping with distancing should be okay fairly soon, and possibly allow dining out with maybe restrictions of operating at half seated capacity.

At any rate, now is the time to think about when and under what conditions the lockdowns change.